Yarra Valley Climate Action Group

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Climate Change Course

Climate Change. Animal Science, La Trobe University, 2011. Dr Gideon Polya.

A. Man-made global warming and GHGs.

1. Earth’s atmosphere: troposphere (surface to 9 km at poles, 17 km at equator); stratosphere (from tropopause boundary to 50 km; UV-absorbing O₃ layer); mesosphere (from stratopause boundary out to 80-85 km; where most meteors burn up); ionosphere (from 50 km out to 1,000 km; solar radiation ionizes molecules).

2. Dry air composition: 78% nitrogen (N₂) 21% oxygen (O₂), 0.9% argon (Ar), 0.04% CO_{2 .}Air typically has about 1% water (H₂O) and increases with temperature in the range 0.01% (dry, polar) to 20% (humid tropical).

3. Greenhouse effect: thermal radiation from sun absorbed by surface and air; re-emitted and reflected light absorbed & re-radiated by air molecules, notably carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O), methane (CH₄), H₂O, man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs). Greenhouse effect (John Tyndall, 1858, UK) keeps planet warm. CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e): total GHGs including CO₂ and other GHGs.

4. Radiative forcing and Global Warming Potential (GWP) of GHGs. Radiative forcing measures warming (positive) effects of e.g. GHGs and carbon particles and cooling (negative ) effects of e.g. sulphate aerosols and reflectivity (albedo) of ice, snow and clouds. Relative GWP based on infra-red (IR) absorbance properties and half-life in atmosphere is directly proportional to radiative forcing and inversely proportional to half-life in the atmosphere.

GWP relative to same mass of CO₂on a 20 year time frame: CO₂ (1.0), CH₄ (79; 105 if aerosol impacts are considered), N₂O (289), chlorofluorohydrocarbon CFC-12, CCl₂F₂ (11,000), hydrochlorofluorohydrocarbon HFC-22, CHClF₂ (5,160), hydrofluorohydrocarbon HFC-23, CHF₃ (12,000), sulphur hexafluoride SF₆(16,300), nitrogen trifluoride NF₃ (12,300).

GWP relative to same mass of CO₂ (1.0) on a 100 year time frame: CO₂ (1.0), CH₄ (25), N2O (298), chlorofluorohydrocarbon CFC-12, CCl₂F₂ (10,900), hydrochlorofluorohydrocarbon HFC-22, CHClF₂ (1,810), hydrofluorohydrocarbon HFC-23, CHF₃ (14,800), sulphur hexafluoride SF₆ (22,800), nitrogen trifluoride NF₃ (17,200).

5. O₃-destroying chlorofluorohydrocarbons (CFCs) such as chlorofluorohydrocarbon CFC-12, CCl₂F₂ were replaced under the Montreal Convention (1987) by hydrofluorohydrocarbon refrigerants and propellants such as hydrofluorohydrocarbon HFC-23 (CHF₃) but the HFCs are now posing an increasing threat because o

f their increasing use and high GWP.

6. CO₂ is the major contributor to anthropogenic global warming (AGW), deriving from aerobic respiration involving oxidation of carbohydrate ( (CH₂O)_n + O₂ -> n CO₂ + nH₂O), lime (CaO) in cement production (CaCO₃ -> CaO + CO₂), and the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal ( C + O₂ -> CO₂) , oil (CH₃(CH₂)nH + ((3n +4)/2)O₂ -> (n+1)CO₂ + (n+2)H₂O) and natural gas, mainly methane (CH₄+ 2O₂-> CO₂ + 2 H₂O).

Major CO₂ sinks include photosynthetic bacterial photosynthesis and plant photosynthesis yielding cellulose and related carbohydrates of wood and thence of soil carbonaceous compounds of humus. Photosynthesis yields carbohydrate: nCO₂ + nH₂0 + solar energy -> (CH₂O)_n + nO₂. Most of photosynthesis is reversed by carbohydrate oxidation by fires or aerobic organisms: (CH₂O)_n + O₂ -> nCO₂ + nH₂O. Some CO₂ dissolves in ocean water, this resulting in biologically deleterious acidification: CO₂ + H₂O -> H₂CO₃ -> HCO₃^- + H⁺; HCO₃^- -> CO₃^2- + H⁺ (see later: threat to coral from ocean acidification as well as warming).

Coal derives from anaerobic geologic conversion of cellulosic carbohydrates to carbon ((CH₂O)_n + heat, pressure -> nC + n H₂O). Subterranean oil drives from anaerobic decarboxylation of biologically-derived fatty acids (CH₃(CH₂)_n-COOH + heat, pressure -> CH₃(CH₂)_nH + CO₂. Subterranean methane derives from anaerobic reduction of carbohydrates by anaerobic bacteria (reduction being addition of electrons (e-), addition of hydrogen atoms (H) or removal of oxygen (O)): (CH₂O)_n + 4H (derived from catabolism and reduced coenzymes) -> nCH₄ + nH₂O.

7. Methane derives from anaerobic degradation of biological material e.g. in swamps, waste dumps, livestock digestion: (CH₂O)_n + 4H (derived from reduced coenzymes) -> nCH₄ + nH₂O. Global warming is already releasing CH₄ from H₂O-CH₄ clathrates in tundra and in shallow parts of the Arctic Ocean. Fugitive CH₄ emissions occur from coal mines, coal seam gas (CSG) extraction, conventional natural gas extraction, from coal seam and shale fracking and from systemic gas reticulation leakage.

8. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) derives from agricultural use of nitrogenous fertilizers and from fossil fuel (coal, gas and oil) combustion.

9. CO₂concentration. As determined from ice cores the atmospheric CO₂ concentration has been 180-300 parts per million (ppm) for the last 800,000 years (excluding the last century), during which time Homo sapiens finally evolved (glaciation at low CO₂and inter-glacial at high CO₂). Indeed these circa 100,000 year cycle oscillations (determined by the earth’s orientation towards the sun and the ellipticity of its orbit) crucially contributed to the final evolution of man (repeated severe selection pressures). Atmospheric CO₂ , now 394 ppm and increasing at over 2.4 ppm per year (seasonally oscillating, Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii), is reported as a dry air mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of CO₂divided by the number of all molecules in air, including CO₂ itself, after water vapor has been removed. Man-made from burning fossil fuels (decreasing ¹⁴C; fossil CO₂ lacks ¹⁴C) and deforestation (initially non-tropical, now mostly tropical).

10. CH₄concentration now 1774 parts per billion (ppb) versus 700 ppb in 1750 (i.e. pre-industrial). N₂O concentration is 319 ppb now as compared to 270 ppb in 1750.

11. Temperature change correlates with GHG change. Modelled temperature change from GHG forcings fits observed pattern in nearly all zones (IPCC; key evidence for Anthropogenic Global warming, AGW).

12. Forcing of man-made GHG and absorbing particles 30x that of change in solar input effect. 1750-2005 heating change in watts/m²: air CO₂ (+1.7), CH₄, N₂O, CFCs (+1.0), net O₃ (troposphere up, stratosphere down; +0.3), soot (+0.3), reflective particles e.g. sulphate aerosols (-0.7), indirect, cloud-forming particle effects (-0.7), human land-use increasing reflectivity (-0.2), solar input change (+ 0.1).

13. Photosynthesis and re-oxidation carbon cycle. Terrestrial carbon fixation of 121.3 GtC/y (x 44/12 = 3.7 -> 449 Gt CO₂ = 449 billion tonnes of CO₂) of which about half returns annually to the atmosphere through plant and animal respiration and most of the remaining half returns to the air through the action of soil fungi and bacteria. Net terrestrial biome production 0.7 GtC/year. Ocean photosynthesis (prokaryotic cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae) 45 GtC /year.

14. Biochar from anaerobic pyrolysis (400-700C) conversion of cellulosic material to carbon (C, charcoal, biochar, Amazonian Indian terra preta): (CH₂O)_n + heat -> nC + nH₂O. Current potential: 1.7 GtC/yr (straw from agriculture) + 4.2 GtC/yr (total grass upgrowth from grasslands upgrowth) + 6 GtC/yr (possible sustainable woodharvest) = 11.9 GtC/yr. Professor Johannes Lehmann (Cornell University): could fix 9.5bn tonnes of carbon per year using biochar, noting global annual production of carbon from fossil fuels is 8.5bn tonnes (see later: biochar is a major means of returning atmospheric CO₂ to 300 ppm from current dangerous and damaging 394 ppm; geoengineering abatement).

15. Carbon storage. 750 GtC in atmosphere (mostly CO2; half due to historical fossil fuel combustion); 700 GtC in biomass (mostly wood); 1,600 GtC in soil; 36,000 GtC in ocean as bicarbonate ion (HCO₃^-); no net CO₂ from vulcanism and weathering (time scale < 100,000 years).

16. World Bank analysts have recently re-assessed annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution as 50% bigger than hitherto thought and that the livestock contribution is over 51% of the bigger figure (major element: 20 year time frame considered for CH₄ GWP).

B. Already observed climatic disruption consequences of global warming.

1. Climate is the pattern of weather. Average surface temperature + 0.8C; +2C inevitable on current trends; may reach +4C by 2100.

2. Non-uniform temperature increase e.g. +2C (Indian Ocean), +4C (Arctic), average +0.8C; thermal inertia, >90% extra heat in oceans.

3. Uneven heating changes wind patterns e.g. East Asia monsoon weakening.

4. Glaciers are shrinking word-wide. No net deposition of ice in Himalayas (no deposition of atmospheric radioactivity) – feeds rivers from Pakistan to China.

5. Permafrost thawing (Fairbanks, Alaska: average circa 0C, +2C over last 50 years). Permafrost melts at T> 0C (noting CH₄ release and positive feedback).

6. Arctic summer sea ice disappearing (80% decrease of total mass; NIDC data: half surface area gone already, the rest to go by about 2030, NW Passage open in summer).

7. Surface melting in Greenland expanding (+ 7 metres sea level if all goes).

8. China: increased floods (south), increased drought (north); same pattern in Australia of increased floods (closer to equator), increased drought (south).

9. A 4-10-fold increase in major flood events per decade around the world (1950-2000) (increased sea temperature means increased humidity, increased precipitation). Statistically proven AGW cause for recent Welsh floods but hard to prove in general because of weather variability (cf cannot prove an individual smoker’s lung cancer due to smoking).

10. Consensus prediction of an increased number of the more intense storms as AGW increases (arguable doubling of tropical hurricane intensity 1950-2000; tropical cyclone power increase parallels increased sea temperature).

11. Melting land ice and thermal expansion increasing sea level (3.0 mm/yr, 1993-2003; 1.5 mm/yr, 1910-1990; circa 20 cm). Major problem for India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, other tropical megadelta regions (storm surges).

12. Ocean acidification due to CO₂ dissolution and ionization (0.1pH; see below: coral threat).

13. Loss of major CO₂ uptake by Southern Ocean (increased storm intensity impact).

14. Over 90% of extra heat in oceans.

C. Already observed biological impacts related to AGW.

1. Ecosystem migration towards poles with AGW (e.g. ocean phytoplankton, deciduous trees in Canada).

2. Heat waves 2x more frequent in Europe (2003 heat wave killed 35,000-50,000 people). January 2009 heat wave prior to 7 February 2009 Victoria Black Saturday killed 500 in SE Australia (elderly more frail, decreased stress signaling).

3. Drought and heat causing increased forest fires (4-10-fold increase in forest area burned in W USA, 1970-2000). Amazon forests threatened by drought and burning positive feedback cycle. Threat to Australia.

4. Mountain pine beetle (MPB) Dendroctonus ponderosae blight (warmer winters, increased survival; larval feeding; fungus infection prevents tree resin defence; devastation of North American conifer forests, US, Canada).

5. Disease migration towards poles (e.g. dengue fever and malaria spread through mosquito vector migration).

6. Increased drought impact in Southern US, Central America, Brazil, Europe, Russia, Mediterranean, Sub-Saharan Africa, East Africa, Siberia, Central Asia, Northern China, Southern Australia, SE Asia (+1C -> 10% decrease in sub-tropical grain yield).

7. Increased temperature, droughts, floods and coastal loss coupled with increased population (9.5 billion by 2050) means greater impact on ecosystems.

8. Coral loss started at 320 ppm CO₂ (general death above 450 ppm; ecosystem disaster).

9. Sex ratio changes in reptilian species due to increased average temperature.

10 Species extinction rate is now 100-1,000 times greater than previously, impacted by AGW and increasing human population and land use.

D. Projected biological impacts.

1. Increasing temperature, drought, floods, sea level rise (possibly 2 metre by 2100), increased high intensity storms and storm surges (see (C) above) resulting in further loss of arable land, ecosystems, pressure on remaining ecosystems.

2. Coral loss due to ocean warming (expulsion of Zooxanthellae photosynthetic algae symbionts and coral bleaching) and ocean acidification from CO₂ dissolution impacts on calcareous exoskeleton formation. Major coral death above 450 ppm CO₂.

3. Ocean acidification impacting all ocean organisms with calcareous exoskeletons (e.g. lobster, crab and shrimp crustaceans).

4. Above 500 ppm CO₂ major loss of phytoplankton (bottom of the ocean food chain) and dimethyl sulphide (DMS) production (involved in cloud seeding); complete loss of Greenland ice sheet (long-term loss yielding 7 m sea level rise); loss of terrestrial plants as CO₂ sinks (i.e. net CO₂ emission).

5. Complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice in circa 2030 (loss of ecosystems, increased risk of oil pollution in Arctic.from increased shipping).

6. Successive loss of Antarctic sea ice, phytoplankton, krill and thence krill-eating animals e.g. fish, penguins, seals, whales.

7. Water stress in particular regions with agricultural, ecosystem, peace impacts.

8. Climate genocide. Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including roughly 2 times the present populations of various non-European groups, specifically 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. Biofuel genocide (food for fuel, price increase, volatility).

E. Urgency of required action.

1. Just as we turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and climate scientists for Climate Change risk assessment. Thus some opinions: (a) Professor James Hansen (top US climate scientist, head, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies): “We face a climate emergency”; (b) Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty: “We are in real danger”; (c) Professor David de Kretser AC (eminent medical scientist and former Governor of Victoria, Australia): “There is no doubt in my mind that this is the greatest problem confronting mankind at this time and that it has reached the level of a state of emergency”; (d) Dr Andrew Glikson (palaeo-climate scientist, ANU): “The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has … raised CO₂ levels to 387 ppm CO₂ to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO₂ levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres”; (e) Synthesis Report of the March 2009 Copenhagen Scientific Climate Change Conference: “Inaction is inexcusable”; and (f) 2010 Open Letter by 255 members of the US National Academy of Sciences: “Delay is not an option”.

2. Climate emergency actions urgently required: (a) Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying; (b) Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO₂ to a safe level of about 300 ppm (as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists to address the current mass species extinction event and to permit return and sustainability of Arctic sea ice); (c) Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that have currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power and a 4 times cheaper “true price” taking environmental and human impacts into account) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth.

3. Budget approach to last remaining permissible GHG pollution.

(a). Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany): for a 67% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise the World must cease CO₂ emissions by 2050 and top per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters such as the US and Australia must get to zero CO₂ emissions by 2020.

(b) Australian Climate Commission's 2011 "The Critical Decade" report: for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise the World can emit no more than 1 trillion tonnes of CO₂ before reaching zero emissions in about 2050. Australia's high Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution rate means it must get to zero emissions in 1.9 years (or in 4.6 years ignoring Exported GHG pollution).

(c) WBGU (that advises German Government on climate change), “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach” (2009): for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade (2C) temperature rise the World can emit no more than 0.6 trillion tonnes of CO₂ before reaching zero emissions in about 2050. Australia's high Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution rate means that by August 2011 it had already used up its “fair share”.

F. Further key points..

1. Gas is not clean, it is dirty, 1 tonne of methane (CH₄) generating 2.8 tonnes CO₂ on combustion. Gas burning is cleaner than coal burning in terms of twice the MWh/tonne CO₂ emitted and less health damaging pollutants but gas is not cleaner than coal burning GHG-wise. Thus methane (CH₄) leaks (3.3% in the US; 7.9% from fracking shale deposits) and is 105 times worse than CO₂ as a GHG on a 20 year time frame taking aerosol impacts into account, this meaning that a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition could double electric power industry-derived GHG pollution (if shale gas used).

2. Climate change is damaging and destroying ecosystems (ecocide) and the species extinction rate is now 100-1,000 times greater than normal (Australia is a word leader). We must not destroy what we cannot replace.

3. Leading scientists, economists and analysts slam the Carbon Trading Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) approach as empirically ineffective, dangerously counterproductive and inherently fraudulent because it involves governments selling licences to pollute the one common atmosphere of all countries.

4. 2.6 % leakage of CH₄ yields the same greenhouse effect as burning the remaining 97.4% (noting that 1g CH₄ has 105 times the GWP of 1 g CO₂) – ergo, stop gas exploitation, aquifer-poisoning and aquifer-depleting fracking of shale and coal seams.

5. Many countries (e.g. EU countries and Australia) support a 450 ppm CO₂-e and 2C temperature rise "cap". However the Synthesis Report of the 2,500-delegate March 2009 scientific Copenhagen Climate Conference indicates that we have already exceeded 450 ppm CO₂-e and over 90% of delegates polled thought 2C was inevitable.

6. Atmospheric CO2 must be urgently returned to about 300 ppm for a safe Planet.for all peoples and all species. Circa 320 ppm CO₂ is required for restoration of the Arctic sea ice and for coral sustainability. However atmospheric CO₂ concentration is currently 394 ppm and is increasing at about 2.4 ppm per year. Less not more!

7. Stop shale oil exploitation (e.g. Canada-US keystone oil pipeline) means “game over” for Planet. Dr James Hansen (NASA): “The tar sands are estimated (e.g., see IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) to contain at least 400 GtC (equivalent to about 200 ppm CO₂). Easily available reserves of conventional oil and gas are enough to take atmospheric CO₂ well above 400 ppm, which is unsafe for life on earth. However, if emissions from coal are phased out over the next few decades and if unconventional fossil fuels including tar sands are left in the ground, it is conceivable to stabilize earth's climate. Phasing out emissions from coal is itself an enormous challenge. However, if the tar sands are thrown into the mix, it is essentially game over.”

8. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution is included).

G. Australia

1. Carbon burning pollutants have been estimated from Canadian and New Zealand data to kill about 10,000 Australians yearly. Australians dying each year from the effects of pollutants from vehicles, coal burning for electricity and other carbon burning total about 2,200, 4,600 and 2,800, respectively.

2. Australia has about 0.3% of the World’s population but its Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution is about 3% of the World total (climate exceptionalism, climate racism, and climate injustice in addition to horrific intergenerational inequity).

3. Australia already has a huge negative carbon tax of $12 billion annually to subsidize carbon burning.

4. It is estimated that an Australian carbon tax of circa $25/tonne carbon will encourage gas-fired power, $70/tonne carbon will encourage wind and about $200/tonne carbon will encourage concentrated solar thermal installation (indeed Australian Government hopes for a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition).

5. True carbon price. A risk avoidance-based estimate of $7.6 million for the value of a statistical life and Australia’s annual Domestic GHG pollution (2009) of 600 million tonnes CO2-e (162 million tonnes Carbon) yields a Carbon Price of $7.6 million x 10,000 annual deaths/ 162 million tonnes Carbon = $469/tonne carbon.

6. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has projected that Australia's black coal exports will increase at an average rate of 2.6% per year over the next 20 years and that liquid natural gas (LNG) exports will increase at 9% per year over the same period. Further, it is estimated that Australian exports of dried brown coal will reach 20 million tonnes by 2020, this corresponding to about 59 million tonnes CO₂-e after combustion.

7. The Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) policy of the Australian Government fails comprehensively in 3 key areas, specifically (1) it entrenches climate change inaction for decades by promoting a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition (that will double electricity generation-derived GHG pollution if shale gas used) and scuppering science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020; (2) it adopts an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive and inherently fraudulent ETS approach and (3) ignores major GHG sources of petrol, diesel, biofuel, fossil fuel exports (apart from fugitive emissions, extraction and transport costs), soil, forestry and agriculture (agriculture is responsible for over 50% of GHG pollution).

8.. Success in “tackling climate change” is surely measured in terms of GHG pollution reduction but Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution increased from 1,018 Mt CO₂-e (CO₂ equivalent) in 2000 to 1,415 million tonnes CO₂-e in 2009 and is expected to reach about 1,799 Mt CO₂-e by 2020 and 4,490b Mt CO₂-e in 2050. However Treasury ABARE and US EIA data show the following Australian Domestic and Exported GHG pollution (in millions of tonnes of CO₂-equivalent, Mt CO₂-e) for Australia under the proposed Carbon Price plan:

2000: 496 (Domestic) + 505 (coal exports) + 17 (LNG exports) = 1,018.

2009: 600 (Domestic) + 784 (coal exports) + 31 (LNG exports) = 1,415.

2020: 621 (Domestic) + 1,039 (black coal exports) + 80 (LNG exports) + 59 (brown coal exports) = 1,799.

2050: 527 (Domestic) + 2902 (coal exports) + 1,061 (LNG exports) = 4,490.

H. 100% renewable energy, cessation of GHG pollution, re-afforestation and biochar.

1. The Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) plan for 100% renewable stationary energy for Australia by 2020 (Zero Carbon Australia by 2020, ZCA 2020) involves 40% wind energy, 60% concentrated solar thermal (CST) with molten salts energy storage for 24/7 baseload power, biomass and hydroelectric backup (for days of no wind and low sunshine) and a HV DC and HC AC national power grid. The BZE scheme was costed at $370 billion over 10 years, with roughly half spent on CST, one quarter on wind and one quarter on the national electricity grid.

2. Seligman scheme. A scheme for 100% renewable energy for Australia has been set out by top electrical engineer Professor Peter Seligman (a major player in development of the bionic ear). Professor Seligman’s scheme involves wind, solar thermal, other energy sources, hydrological energy storage (in dams on the Nullabor Plain in Southern Australia), an HV AC and HV DC electricity transmission grid and a cost over 20 years of $253 billion.

3. Wind power. Ignoring cost-increasing energy storage and transmission grid costs and cost-decreasing economies of scale for a 2- to10-fold size increase, here are 2 similar cost estimates for installation of wind power for 80% of Australia’s projected 325,000 GWh of annual electrical energy by 2020: (1) 90,000 MW capacity, 260,000 GWh/year, $200 billion/10 years (10-fold scale-up from GL Garrad Hassan) and (2) 96,000 MW, 260,000 GWh/year, $144 billion (2-fold scale up from BZE ).

4. Science-demanded reduction of atmospheric CO₂ from 394 ppm to 300 ppm requires “negative GHG emissions” achieved by cessation of GHG pollution ASAP and CO₂ reduction though re-afforestation, renewable energy driven CO₂ trapping in alkaline solutions, and biochar (as much as 12 billion tonnes carbon as biochar can be fixed annually globally from renewable energy-driven anaerobic pyrolysis of agricultural and forestry cellulosic waste).

5. Re-afforestation (SE Australian native forests are World’s best forest carbon sinks; 14 M ha, 25.5 Gt CO₂, 460 Mt CO₂/yr avoided for next 100 years if retained). Nicholas Stern: only $20 billion pa to halve annual global deforestation.

6. Livestock production inefficient, requires compensating carbon sinks – we are all in this together.

I. Some useful references.

This course synopsis is on the websites for the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (see: http://yvcag.blogspot.com/2011_08_01_archive.html and https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/2011-climate-change-course ) and 300.org (see: http://300org.blogspot.com/2011_08_01_archive.html and https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course ) together with numerous detailed Web-accessible references (these sites also contain many other carefully researched and documented articles).

James Hansen, “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd”: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf .

John Holdren, “The science of climatic disruption”: http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, “Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree C line”: http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/1-1schellnhuber.pdf .

References.

1. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, “Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree C line”< 4 Degrees & Beyond, International Climate Conference, 26-30 September 2009, Oxford University, UK : http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/1-1schellnhuber.pdf .

2. Beyond Zero Emissions Zero (BZE), Zero Carbon Australia by 2020 Report (BZE ZCA2020 Report), 2010: http://www.beyondzeroemissions.org/about/bze-brand .

3. Australian Climate Commission, “The Critical Decade. Climate science, risks and responses”, 2011: http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/ .

4. Gideon Polya, “Country By Country Analysis Of Years Left Until Science-demanded Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Countercurrents, 11 June 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110611.htm .

5. Gideon Polya, “Australia's Carbon Tax And Coal To Gas Transition Will Double Power Generation Greenhouse Gas Pollution”, Countercurrents, 15 May 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150511.htm .

6. Gideon Polya, “Carbon Price & Climate Change Action Fact Sheet for leading per capita greenhouse gas polluter Australia”, Bellaciao, 14 March 2011: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article20628 .

7. Phillip Levin, Donald Levin, “The real biodiversity crisis”, American Scientist, January-February 2002: http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/the-real-biodiversity-crisis .

8. “Australia’s threatened species”, Nova: http://www.science.org.au/nova/010/010key.htm .

9. “Experts: carbon tax needed and not cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme (ETS”, 300.org): http://300org.blogspot.com/2011/05/experts-carbon-tax-not-ets.html .

10. Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf .

11. Synthesis Report from the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, Climate Change, Global risks, challenges & decisions”, Copenhagen 10-12 March, 2009, University of Copenhagen, Denmark: http://lyceum.anu.edu.au/wp-content/blogs/3/uploads//Synthesis%20Report%20Web.pdf .

12. “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .

13. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, “Recent monthly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ .

14. “Australian carbon burning-related deaths”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/2011-carbon-burning .

15. “Climate Genocide”: http://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .

16. Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF), “Australia spends $11 billion more encouraging pollution than cleaning it up”, 1 March 2011: http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=3308&eid=11731 .

17. Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE), “Carbon pricing – will it benefit renewable energy”, February 2011: http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/15154881/738777308/name/BZE%20Carbon%20Price%20Recommendations%2020110228.pdf .

18. Gideon Polya, “Australia's Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution has increased under Labor”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/australia-s-ghg-pollution .

19. ABARE, “Australian energy national and state projections to 2029-2030”: http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/energy/energy_06/nrg_projections06.pdf .

20. Peter Seligman, “Australian sustainable energy – by the numbers”, Melbourne Energy Institute, University of Melbourne , 2010: http://energy.unimelb.edu.au/ozsebtn/.

21. GL Garrad Hassan https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/mediaObject/events/2010-conference/presentations/1600-Barber---White/original/CEC%202010%20conference%20-%20GLGH.pdf .

22. Gideon Polya, “Forest biomass-derived Biochar can profitably reduce global warming and bushfire risk”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/forest-biomass-derived-biochar-can-profitably-reduce-global-warming-and-bushfire-risk .

23. “Climate crisis facts and required actions”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-crisis-facts-required-actions .

24. Gideon Polya, “Oz Labor’s Carbon Tax-ETS & gas for coal plan means INCREASED GHG pollution”, Bellaciao, 27 August 2011: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article21140 .

25. Gideon Polya, “Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions”, Green Blog, 1 August 2011: http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/ .

26. Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions”, Science, 30 October 2009:
Vol. 326 no. 5953 pp. 716-718: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716 .

27 Shindell et al (2009), Fig.2: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716.figures-only .

28. Robert W. Howarth, Renee Santoro and Anthony Ingraffea, “Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations”, Climatic Change, 2011: http://www.sustainablefuture.cornell.edu/news/attachments/Howarth-EtAl-2011.pdf .

29. Australian Treasury, “Strong growth, low pollution. Modelling a carbon price”, 2011: http://cache.treasury.gov.au/treasury/carbonpricemodelling/content/report/downloads/Modelling_Report_Consolidated.pdf?v=1 .

30. John Holdren, “The Science of climatic disruption”: http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .

31. James Hansen, “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd”: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf .

32. Brendan Mackey, Heather Keith, Sandra Berry, David Lindenmeyer (ANU), “Green Carbon. The role of natural forests in carbon storage”: http://epress.anu.edu.au/green_carbon/pdf/whole_book.pdf .

Dr Gideon Polya currently teaches science students at a major Australian university. He published some 130 works in a 5 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London , 2003). He has recently published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ ); see also his contributions “Australian complicity in Iraq mass mortality” in “Lies, Deep Fries & Statistics” (edited by Robyn Williams, ABC Books, Sydney, 2007): http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s1445960.htm ) and “Ongoing Palestinian Genocide” in “The Plight of the Palestinians (edited by William Cook, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2010: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/4047-the-plight-of-the-palestinians.html ). He has just published a revised and updated 2008 version of his 1998 book “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History” (see: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ ) as biofuel-, globalization- and climate-driven global food price increases threaten a greater famine catastrophe than the man-made famine in British-ruled India that killed 6-7 million Indians in the “forgotten” World War 2 Bengal Famine (see recent BBC broadcast involving Dr Polya, Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen and others: http://www.open2.net/thingsweforgot/ bengalfamine_programme.html ). When words fail one can say it in pictures - for images of Gideon Polya's huge paintings for the Planet, Peace, Mother and Child see: http://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/gideonpolya/ .

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Australia ignores 25 major science-based issues in climate change action debate

The following detailed, documented, science-based analysis has been sent to Australian media and to all Federal MPs by Dr Gideon Polya

Current Carbon Tax debate ignores 25 major science-based issues.

Utterly astonishing in the Australian debate about the Carbon Tax is the near total exclusion from the woeful public discussion in Parliament and the Mainstream media of 25 science-based, Elephant in the Room matters relating to climate change action. For documented details reproduced below and being sent to all Australian MPs and Media in the public interest simply Google “Australia ignores 25” or see: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article20943 .

Thus Australia must get to zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions well before 2020 to do its “fair share” in the required global action to avoid a damaging 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise but in fact is set to increase its Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution to about 150% of the 2000 level by 2020.

Further, a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition will result in a doubling of power industry-based GHG pollution because methane (about 85% of natural gas) leaks at 3.3% and is 105 times worse than carbon dioxide (CO2) as a GHG on a 20 year timeframe with aerosol impacts considered.

Culpably ignored is that achieving zero emissions is not enough - atmospheric CO2 must be then reduced from the current 394 ppm to about 300 ppm as demanded by top climate scientists and biologists for a safe planet for all peoples and species.

Ignoring the science will be disastrous. Thus Labor’s Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) policy entrenches climate change inaction by promoting a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition (that will double electricity generation-derived GHG pollution), scuppering science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020, adopting an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive and inherently fraudulent ETS approach, and by ignoring petrol, fossil fuel exports, soil, forestry and agriculture (yet agriculture is responsible for over 50% of GHG pollution).

Yours sincerely,

Dr Gideon Polya (contact details).

25 major science-based issues ignored in the current Carbon Tax debate.

1. According to Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany), for a 67% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise the World must cease CO2 emissions by 2050 and top per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters such as the US and Australia must get to zero CO2 emissions by 2020. [1, 2]

2. According to the Australian Climate Commission's 2011 "The Critical Decade" report, for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise the World can emit no more than 1 trillion tonnes of CO2 before reaching zero emissions in about 2050. Australia's high Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution rate means it must get to zero emissions in 1.9 years or in 4.6 years (ignoring Exported GHG pollution). [3, 4]

3. Gas is not clean, it is dirty, 1 tonne of methane (CH4) generating 2.8 tonnes CO2 on combustion. Gas burning is cleaner than coal burning in terms of twice the MWh/tonne CO2 emitted and less health damaging pollutants but gas is not cleaner than coal burning GHG-wise. Thus methane (CH4) leaks (3.3%) and is 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year timeframe taking aerosol impacts into account, this meaning that a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition will double electric power industry-derived GHG pollution. [5, 6]

4. Climate change is damaging and destroying ecosystems (ecocide) and the species extinction rate is now 100-1,000 times greater than normal (Australia is a word leader). We must not destroy what we cannot replace. [7, 8]

5. Leading scientists, economists and analysts slam the Carbon Trading Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) approach as empirically ineffective, dangerously counterproductive and inherently fraudulent because it involves governments selling licences to pollute the one common atmosphere of all countries. [9].

6. World Bank analysts have recently re-assessed annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution as 50% bigger than hitherto thought and that the livestock contribution is over 51% of the bigger figure (Labor proposes to ignore agriculture). [10]

7. Many countries (e.g. EU countries and Australia) support a 450 ppm CO2-equivalent and a 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise "cap". However the Synthesis Report of the 2,500-delegate March 2009 scientific Copenhagen Climate Conference indicates that we have already exceeded 450 ppm CO2-e and over 90% of delegates polled thought 2C was inevitable. [11]

8. GHG pollution must decrease but it has increased under Labor whose policies mean that Australia's Domestic plus Exported GHG will be about 150% of the 2000 level by 2020. [4]

9. Atmospheric CO2 must be urgently returned to about 300 ppm for a safe Planet.for all peoples and all species. Circa 320 ppm CO2 is required for restoration of the Arctic sea ice and for coral sustainability. However atmospheric CO2 concentration is currently 394 ppm and is increasing at about 2.4 ppm per year. [12, 13]

10. Carbon burning pollutants have been estimated from Canadian and New Zealand data to kill about 10,000 Australians yearly. Australians dying each year from the effects of pollutants from vehicles, coal burning for electricity and other carbon burning total about 2,200, 4,600 and 2,800, respectively. [14]

11. Leading UK climate scientists Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson (Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of about 10 billion people this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. [15].

12. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution is included). [15]

13. Australia has about 0.3% of the World’s population but its Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution is about 3% of the World total (climate exceptionalism, climate racism, and climate injustice in addition to horrific intergenerational inequity). [15].

14. Australia already has a huge carbon tax of $12 billion annually to subsidize carbon burning. [16].

15. It is estimated that a carbon tax of greater than $25/tonne carbon will encourage gas-fired power, $70/tonne carbon will encourage wind and about $200/tonne carbon will encourage concentrated solar thermal installation (indeed Labor hopes for a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition). [5, 17]

16. A risk avoidance-based estimate of $7.6 million for the value of a statistical life and Australia’s annual Domestic GHG pollution (2009) of 600 million tonnes CO2-e (162 million tonnes Carbon) yields a Carbon Price of $7.6 million x 10,000/ 162 million tonnes Carbon = $469/tonne carbon. [14]

17. Politically correct voter strategy should be to punish the incumbent and success in “tackling climate change” is surely measured in terms of GHG pollution reduction. Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution increased from 1121 million tonnes CO2-e (CO2 equivalent) in 2006-2007 (under the Coalition) to 1,415 million tonnes CO2-e in 2009 (under Labor) and is expected to reach about 1,666 Mt CO2-e by 2020 under Labor policies. [4, 18]

18. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has projected that Australia's black coal exports will increase at an average rate of 2.4% per year over the next 20 years and that liquid natural gas (LNG) exports will increase at 9% per year over the same period. Further, it is estimated that Australian exports of dried brown coal will reach 20 million tonnes by 2020, this corresponding to about 59 million tonnes CO2-e after combustion. [19]

19. The Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) plan for 100% renewable stationary energy for Australia by 2020 (Zero Carbon Australia by 2020, ZCA 2020) involves 40% wind energy, 60% concentrated solar thermal (CST) with molten salts energy storage for 24/7 baseload power, biomass and hydroelectric backup (for days of no wind and low sunshine) and a HV DC and HC AC national power grid. The BZE scheme was costed at $370 billion over 10 years, with roughly half spent on CST, one quarter on wind and one quarter on the national electricity grid. [2]

20. A scheme for 100% renewable energy for Australia has been set out by top electrical engineer Professor Peter Seligman (a major player in development of the bionic ear). Professor Seligman’s scheme involves wind, solar thermal, other energy sources, hydrological energy storage (in dams on the Nullabor Plain in Southern Australia), an HV AC and HV DC electricity transmission grid and a cost over 20 years of $253 billion. [20]

21. Ignoring cost-increasing energy storage and transmission grid costs and cost-decreasing economies of scale for a 2- to10-fold size increase, here are 2 similar cost estimates for installation of wind power for 80% of Australia’s projected 325,000 GWh of annual electrical energy by 2020: (1) 90,000 MW capacity, 260,000 GWh/year, $200 billion/10 years (10-fold scale-up from GL Garrad Hassan) and (2) 96,000 MW, 260,000 GWh/year, $144 billion (2-fold scale up from BZE ). [2, 6, 21]

22.Science-demanded reduction of atmospheric CO2 from 394 ppm to 300 ppm requires “negative GHG emissions” achieved by cessation of GHG pollution ASAP and CO2 reduction though re-afforestation (SE Australian native forests are the World’s best forest carbon sinks), renewable energy driven CO2 trapping in alkaline solutions, and biochar (as much as 12 billion tonnes carbon as biochar can be fixed annually globally from renewable energy-driven anaerobic pyrolysis of agricultural and forestry cellulosic waste). [22]

23. What needs to be done to tackle climate change: (1) Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying, (2) urgent reduction of atmospheric CO₂ to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists, and (3) a rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils and mining cavities coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth. [23]

24. From a science perspective, the Australian Coalition's Direct Action policy has 2 major things to commend it, specifically (1) unlike Labor's policy it does not entrench climate change inaction (it can be scaled up or down in response to science or greed, respectively) and (2) unlike Labor's hypothetical market approach it actually does something concrete about reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution (cleaner energy, biochar, re-afforestation), albeit too little too late.

25. In stark contrast to the Australian Coalition Opposition’s Direct Action policy, the pro-coal, pro-gas, anti-science Labor market economics-based Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) policy of the Gillard Labor Government fails comprehensively in 2 key areas, specifically (1) it entrenches climate change inaction for decades by promoting a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition (that will double electricity generation-derived GHG pollution) and scuppering science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020 and (2) it adopts an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive and inherently fraudulent ETS approach as well as ignoring petrol, fossil fuel exports (apart from fugitive emissions, extraction and transport costs), soil, forestry and agriculture (agriculture is responsible for over 50% of GHG pollution).

References.

2. Beyond Zero Emissions Zero (BZE), Zero Carbon Australia by 2020 Report (BZE ZCA2020 Report), 2010: http://www.beyondzeroemissions.org/about/bze-brand .

3. Australian Climate Commission, “The Critical Decade. Climate science, risks and responses”, 2011: http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/ .

5. Gideon Polya, “Australia's Carbon Tax And Coal To Gas Transition Will Double Power Generation Greenhouse Gas Pollution”, Countercurrents, 15 May 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150511.htm .

7. Phillip Levin, Donald Levin, “”The real biodiversity crisis”, American Scientist, January-February 2002: http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/the-real-biodiversity-crisis .

8. “Australia’s threatened species”, Nova: http://www.science.org.au/nova/010/010key.htm .

9. “Experts: carbon tax needed and not cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme (ETS”, 300.org): http://300org.blogspot.com/2011/05/experts-carbon-tax-not-ets.html .

12. “300.0rg – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .

13. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, “Recent monthly mean CO2 at Mauna Loa”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ .

14. “Australian carbon burning-related deaths”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/2011-carbon-burning .

15. “Climate Genocide”: http://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .

19. ABARE, “Australian energy national and state projections to 2029-2030”: http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/energy/energy_06/nrg_projections06.pdf .

20. Peter Seligman, “Australian sustainable energy – by the numbers”, Melbourne Energy Institute, University of Melbourne , 2010: http://energy.unimelb.edu.au/ozsebtn/.

21. GL Garrad Hassan https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/mediaObject/events/2010-conference/presentations/1600-Barber---White/original/CEC%202010%20conference%20-%20GLGH.pdf

23. “Climate crisis facts and required actions”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-crisis-facts-required-actions .

Friday, June 24, 2011

SUMMARY of Synthesis Report of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference

The must-read Synthesis Report from the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (“Climate Change, Global risks, challenges & decisions”, Copenhagen 10-12 March, 2009, University of Copenhagen, Denmark) has just been released: http://lyceum.anu.edu.au/wp-content/blogs/3/uploads//Synthesis%20Report%20Web.pdf .

This is a vital synthesis of current climate science from the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference that involved 2,500 professional participants, most of them climate science researchers. All were welcome and the program and abstracts of the papers presented are available here: http://climatecongress.ku.dk/ .

The key moral imperative of the Synthesis Report is “Inaction is inexcusable”.

The members of the writing team for this extensively and expertly reviewed 2009 Synthesis Report are listed below together with their credentialing institutional affiliations.

Professor Katherine Richardson (Vice-Dean, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark),

Professor Will Steffen (Executive Director of the ANU Climate Change Institute, Australian National University, Australia)

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany and Visiting Professor, University of Oxford, UK).

Professor Joseph Alcamo (Chief Scientist designate, United Nations Environment Program, UNEP).

Dr. Terry Barker (Centre for Climate Change Mitigation research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, UK)

Professor Daniel M. Kammen (Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, Energy & resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, USA).

Professor Dr. Rik Leemans (Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Netherlands)

Professor Diana Liveman (Director of the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK).

Professor Mohan Munasinghe (Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Sri Lanka).

Dr. Balgis Osman-Elashe (Higher Council for Environment & Natural Resources, HCENR, Sudan).

Professor Sir Nicholas Stern (top UK climate change economist, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government, London School of Economics, UK).

Professor Ole Wæver (Political Science Department, University of Copenhagen, Denmark).

The Synthesis Report was in 6 key areas that are briefly summarized below (with complementary documented comments added).

1. Climatic trends – the Report details the remorseless INCREASING in past decades in sea level; in energy content change for glaciers, ice caps, .Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet, contents, atmosphere and Arctic sea ice; Greenland melt area; Greenland ice mass loss; surface air temperature; ocean heat content; atmospheric CO₂, methane, nitrous oxide, and total greenhouse gases (GHGs) in CO₂-equivalent.

For recent, detailed, incisive assessments of the extent of the current climate emergency see: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-change-power-point-lectures-1 .

2. Social and environmental disruption – the Report details actual climate disruption realities that have ALREADY HAPPENED such as (a) increased hurricane intensity, drought, fires and flooding and impacts on tropical diseases, agriculture, malnutrition, and health in general; (b) major ecosystem damage including boreal forest die-back (N America), melt of Greenland ice shelf, changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency, dieback of Amazon rainforest, Atlantic deep water formation, European ozone hole, boreal forest dieback (Russia), Permafrost and tundra loss (N America, Russia), Sahara greening, West African monsoon shift, Indian Monsoon chaotic multistability, instability of West Antarctic ice sheet and changes in Antarctic bottom water formation; (c) huge decrease in ocean pH (increased acidity) in the last 2 centuries that is unprecedented over the last 20 million years and with devastating consequences for coral and crustaceans; (d) increased species extinction rates 1,000 times that of background rates typical of the planet’s history; and (e) huge increased risks in relations to species, extreme weather events, global distribution of impacts, aggregate impacts and risk of large scale discontinuities.

For a series of brilliant power point presentations on the current predicament from top climate scientists and analysts (Including Professor John Holdren, President Obama's science adviser) see “8 top Climate Change power point lectures & 300.org 300 ppm CO2 target “: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/8-top-climate-power-point-lectures-300-ppm-co2-target .

America is a major GHG polluter and a leading annual per capita GHG polluter but is already being seriously impacted itself by man-made global warming as set out in the key 2009 summary document from the US Administration entitled “Global climate change impacts in the United States” : http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts .

3. Long term strategy: global targets and deadline – “rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid” dangerous climate change” regardless of how it is defined”. The equilibrium temperature increase is a very damaging 2.0-2.4^oC increase over the pre-industrial for a 85-50% decrease on 2000 GHG and a 445-490 ppm CO₂-e or 350-400 ppm CO₂ peaking at 2000-2015 (roughly the current situation with CO2-e of 460 ppm but with zero net emissions) – however, this rises to a catastrophic 4.9-6.1^oC increase for a 90-140% increase on 2000 GHG and a 855-1130 ppm CO₂-e or 660-790 ppm CO₂ peaking at 2060-2090 (this latter scenario exceeding the projections of world-leading per capita GHG polluter and world #1 coal exporter Australia which under present policies will increase its Domestic and Exported GHG pollution on the 2000 value by about 80% by 2050: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/australia-s-5-off-2000-ghg-pollution-by-2020-endangers-australia-humanity-and-biosphere ).

The most shocking finding (apart from the immense, life-threatening climate disruption already occurring across the world with a temperature of +0.7^oC above that in 1900 and with a further circa 1^oC virtually inevitable) is the over 50% probability of exceeding very damaging +2^oC if we have as our target the "zero net emissions" target from the present atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) level of about 460 ppm CO2-equivalent.

Indeed a survey of the Copenhagen Conference participants found that 90% expected 2^oC to be exceeded (see “World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree”, The Guardian, UK, 2009:http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c ).

4. Equity dimension – “climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human societies and the natural world ... tackling climate change should be seen as integral to the broader goals of enhancing socio-economic development and equity throughout the world” .

This indeed is the “elephant in the room” because already 16 million people die avoidably each year from deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease (overwhelmingly in the non-European Developing World) (see my book “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950: http://mwcnews.net/Gideon-Polya and my 2008 lecture with the same title: http://globalavoidablemortality.blogspot.com/2008/08/body-count-global-avoidable-mortality.html ). The partial breakdown of 16 million people dying avoidably each year (2003 data) is 0.18 million for the Western European World (including colonization-derived Overseas Europe) , 1.1 million for the Eastern European World, 14.8 million for the non-European World, 9.5 million under-5 year old infants, about 7.4 million for the Muslim World, 0.6 million in Bangladesh, 3.7 million in India and 0.9 million in Pakistan) but Professor Lovelock’s estimation of circa 10 billion excess deaths (mostly non-European) due to global warming by the end of the century lifts the average 21st century global annual death rate to an horrendous 10,000 million/100 years = 100 million per year (see. Gaia Vince (2009), “One last chance to save mankind“, New Scientist, 23 January 2009: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126921.500-one-last-chance-to-save-mankind.html?full=true and Gideon Polya “Climate Disruption, Climate Emergency, Climate Genocide & Penultimate Bengali Holocaust through Sea Level Rise “: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-disruption-climate-emergency-climate-genocide-penultimate-bengali-holocaust-through-sea-level-rise ).

Currently, “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 2.2 (India), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution from its world’s biggest coal exports is included) (latest available estimates plus 2005 data from Wikipedia, “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita ).

Top climate scientists say that the atmospheric CO2 needs to be urgently reduced to 300 ppm to make the planet safe for all peoples and all species (see 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org ). However, with global annual greenhouse gas pollution still INCREASING it is clear that World governments still do not appreciate the dire urgency of the problem. The worst offender by far is Australia which has annual per capita Domestic and Exported GHG pollution 10 times that of China, 25 times that of India and 60 times that of Bangladesh – but which under its policy of “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020” is committed to INCREASING its Domestic and Exported GHG pollution from 2000 levels by 40% (2020) and by 80% (2050) (see: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/australia-s-5-off-2000-ghg-pollution-by-2020-endangers-australia-humanity-and-biosphere ).

5. Inaction is inexcusable – “Society already has many tools and approaches – economic, technological, behavioural, and managerial – to deal effectively with the climate change challenge. If these tools are not widely and vigorously implemented, adaptation to the unavoidable climate change and the social transformation required to decarbonise economies will not be achieved. A wide range of benefits will flow from a concerted effort to achieve effective and rapid adaptation and mitigation. These include job growth in the sustainable sector; reductions in the health, social, economic and environmental costs of climate change; and the repair of ecosystems and revitalisation of ecosystem services".

For a clear statement about climate emergency facts and required actions see the summary provided by the Melbourne-based Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-emergency-facts-and-required-actions . The key required actions advocated include: 1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying. 2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO₂ to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists. 3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth.

A clear strategy to get governments to finally take action over the climate emergency is the so-called ABC Protocol that involves (A) Accountability of greenhouse gas (GHG)-polluting climate criminals imposing GHG pollution on all peoples and species (e.g. by naming via an electronic Climate Doomsday Book or virtual Climate Doomsday Monument of bad and good guys; by using a Green Credentialling or Green Certification system to identify products, people, companies and countries we can support and those we must boycott; and by international and intra-national sanctions, boycotts, green tariffs, reparations demands, civil actions and criminal prosecutions); (B) a Badge that activists can wear with a simple core pictorial or word message (e.g. “Climate Emergency” or “Climate Emergency Network”) or a core numerical message (e.g. “300” or “350” to indicate the urgent need to reduce atmospheric CO₂ concentration to about 300 parts per million (ppm) or to less than 350 ppm, respectively); and (C) a Credo or core statement of beliefs e.g. “Safe and sustainable existence for all peoples and all species on our warming-threatened Planet requires a rapid reduction of atmospheric CO2 to 300 ppm” (see: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/letter-to-island-nations---accountability-badge-and-credo-abc-protocol-icc-prosecutions-may-yet-save-island-states-planet ).

6. Meeting the challenge - the key final conclusion was ultimately one about human values and the enormous risk we face: "Ultimately these human dimensions of climate change [the cultures and worldviews of individuals and communities] will determine whether humanity eventually achieves the great transformation that is in sight at the beginning of the 21st century or whether humanity ends the century with a "miserable existence in a +5^oC world".

The ultimate philosophic point is what VALUE do we place on other peoples and other species? The Australia-based 300.org is explicit in its position, a position that is shared by the Climate Emergency Network, the influential Melbourne-based Yarra Valley Climate Action Group, and by the over 140 climate action groups that attended the January 2009 Canberra Climate Action Summit: “There must be a safe and sustainable existence for all peoples and all species on our warming-threatened Planet and this requires a rapid reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to about 300 parts per million” (see: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org ).

Water & climate change

20 Questions and Answers re Water & Climate Change [brief answers in parentheses].

1. How should we respond to risks in general? [Rational risk management successively involves (a) getting accurate data, (b) scientific analysis (science involving the critical testing of potentially falsifiable hypotheses) and (c) systemic change to minimize risk. Conversely, all too common spin successively involves (a) lies, propaganda, obfuscation, censorship, (b) anti-science spin (this involving the selective use of asserted facts to support a partisan position and (c) counterproductive blame and shame that is politically profitable but which inhibits mandatory reportage].

2. Is the world responding properly to man-made climate change? [No. Top climate scientists including the UK Royal Society Coral Working Group say we must urgently reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration from the current dangerous and damaging 392 parts per million (ppm) to a safe and sustainable 300 ppm to protect all peoples and all species. However all governments are committed to continued increase in GHG pollution. Professor Kevin Anderson and Dr Alice Bows (UK Tyndall Institute, University of Manchester) have estimated that a 6-8% annual decrease in GHG pollution, i.e. in carbon-based economic activity, would be required to keep to a 2 degree C temperature rise but all governments are committed to increasing carbon-based economic activity].

3. Why isn’t the world responding properly to man-made climate change? [Governments focus on citizen satisfaction and short-term economic growth, especially in democracies with 3-5 year electoral cycles. This is compounded by powerful business lobbies, notably the fossil fuel lobby (hence the term Lobbyocracy) and oligopoly media (hence the term Murdochracy). Professor Jared Diamond in his book “Collapse” considers top-down and bottom-up scenarios for social change in response to threatening environmental change. Useful actions by China in response to the Climate Emergency provide an example of an effective top-down response ].

4. Could you comment on scientists and global climate change policy? As a science student, scientist and science teacher over 5 decades I can give my personal experience: as a science student in the 1960s aware of man’s impact on the biosphere (Rachel Carson’s “Silent Spring”) and our burning of oil, the feedstock of organic chemical industry; as a scientist in the early 1970s aware of population pressures (Paul Ehrlich’s “The Population Bomb”) and the finiteness of resources, including the atmosphere (The Club of Rome’s “Limits to Growth”); as a scientist researcher and teaching academic in the middle 1980s aware of the seriousness of Man’s chemical pollution of the atmosphere (CFCs and the Ozone Hole) and the growing seriousness of man-made global warming (IPCC set up in 1988); early 1990s realization of societal ignoring of the deadly seriousness of AGW (anthropogenic global warming) especially to megadelta countries such as Bangladesh (see Gideon Polya’s book “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History”); 21st century activism to tackle huge gulf between science and public perception. 2008-2010 – pleas by top scientists and scientific bodies e.g. “We face a climate emergency” (NASA’s Dr James Hansen, 2008); “inaction is inexcusable” (Synopsis of 2,500-delegate March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference), “delay is not an option” (255 members of the US National Academy of Science, 2010). Just as we turn to top medical specialists in relation to life threatening disease, so we must take the advice on the climate emergency from top climate scientists. The gulf over climate change action remains between science (urgent action now) and public perception (some token action) c/- polluter lobbyists in Lobbyocracy Australia

5. Can you outline the water situation on Planet Earth and the gross impact of climate change? About 97% of the world’s water is saline sea water. Of the 3% of fresh water about 30% is groundwater, 69% is tied up as ice in the polar regions and glaciers and about 1% is surface water. Of the 1% of fresh water that is surface water, the breakdown is 2% (rivers), 11% (swamps) and 67% (lakes). AGW will shift huge amounts of glacier and polar ice to saline sea water (2-5 metre sea rise this century). Dr Andrew Glikson (palaeo-climate scientist, ANU): “The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has … raised CO₂ levels to 387 ppm CO₂ to date [actually now 392 ppm, increasing ar 2 ppm per year], leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO₂ levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres.” Groundwater aquifers are being ”mined” by agriculture just as soils have been “mined” by agriculture and arable land is being lost through nutrient depletion, erosion, urbanization, coastal inundation and salinization. AGW is impacting surface fresh water through increased drought and floods in different areas.

6. How is man-made climate change impacting global fresh water? [According to Professor John Holdren “The Science of Climatic Disruption”, drought is increasing in northern and southern latitudes (e.g. US, Russia, Northern China, Southern Australia) but floods have increased in tropical and sub-tropical regions ( Southern China, Pakistan, Northern Australia). Aquifers are being depleted (notably in North India) and glaciers are melting, notably in the Himalayas that feed the major rivers of South Asia, South East Asia and East Asia crucial for about 3 billion people].

7. What is Water Stress? [Water Stress can be measured by the Water Withdrawal/Water Availability ratio. The World Water Council has provided a colour-coded map indicating that some parts of First World countries are suffering High Water Stress (ratio 0.4 – 0.8), notably in the US, the Ukraine and Southern Australia. However Very High Water Stress (ratio 0.8-1.0) is occurring in a swathe of Developing countries from North Africa through to Mongolia in addition to occurring in specific regions of Western US, Mexico, Chile, South Africa, and Southern Australia (e.g. regions where the drought has most strongly persisted).

8. Can you outline global inequities in basic water availability for human use? The World Water Council provides the following statistics. 1.1 billion people (overwhelmingly in the Developing World) live without clean drinking water (potable water). 2.6 billion people (overwhelmingly in the Developing World) lack adequate sanitation, this having major health consequences. 1.8 million people (overwhelmingly in the Developing World) die every year from diarrhoeal diseases (from lack of clean water, soap and sanitation). 1.4 million children (overwhelmingly in the Developing World) die each year from water borne diseases (3,900 daily). Daily per capita use of water in residential areas is 380 litres (North America and Japan ), 200 litres (Europe), and 10-20 litres (sub-Saharan Africa ).

9. What is peak water? Peak water is reached when the rate of water demand higher exceeds the rate of replenishment. Water is declining in glaciers (worldwide), aquifers (e.g. Northern India and Australia), rivers (e.g. the Murray-Darling River system in Australia) and in lakes. Peak water is being approached in many areas around the world (see #7). By 2025 two thirds of the world population could be subject to water stress.

10. What is the relative water use in Australia and other countries? In very dry Australia total freshwater withdrawal is 24.1 km³/year; per capita withdrawal is 1,193 m³/person/year; and the % use is 15% (domestic), 10% (industry) and 75% (agriculture). In wet Canada (a major repository of global fresh water) total freshwater withdrawal is 44.7 km³/year; per capita withdrawal is 1,386 m³/person/year; and the % use is 20% (domestic), 69% (industry) and 12% (agriculture) (similar % use to Russia). In the drier US total freshwater withdrawal is 477 km³/year; per capita withdrawal is 1,600 m³/person/year; and the % use is 13% (domestic), 46% (industry) and 41% (agriculture). In heavily rural but industrializing India total freshwater withdrawal is 646 km³/year; per capita withdrawal is 585 m³/person/year; and the % use is 8% (domestic), 5% (industry) and 86% (agriculture). In substantially rural but rapidly industrializing China total freshwater withdrawal is 550 km³/year; per capita withdrawal is 415 m³/person/year; and the % use is 7% (domestic), 26% (industry) and 68% (agriculture). In dominantly rural Developing Countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, Iran, Egypt, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Guyana and Suriname, the % of fresh water for agriculture is in the range 91-96%.

11. What is virtual water (also known as embedded water, embodied water, or hidden water) and the differential use of water for different products? Virtual water is the quantity of water needed to produce an economic item e.g. the virtual water cost of 1 kg of the following products is 1,000 litres (wheat), 1,400 litres (rice), 3,300 litres (eggs), and 15,000 litres (beef) (noting that Americans eat 22 times more meat annually than Indians). For industrial products the virtual water cost of following products is 11,000 (pair of jeans), 1,000,000 litres (a car), and 6,000,000 litres (a house).

12. Is water being exported? Turkey exports water to Israel in tankers. Dry Australia exports virtual (embedded) water in its wheat exports (1,000 litres water per kg of wheat x 14.7 million tonnes wheat in 2009-2010 x 1,000 kg/tonne x 1 m³ / 1,000 litres= 14.7 billion m³ H₂O as compared to about 26 billion m³ total annual water withdrawal.

13. Should Australia (and other countries) shift to better use of water? Yes. Domestically there must be better storm water collection, recycling of water, use of grey water for flushing toilets and watering gardens and alternative sewerage systems may need to be developed (e.g. based on existing dry systems if compatible with urban health). Growing cotton and rice in dry Australia is profligate. Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) and conventional breeding approaches for drought-tolerant and salinity-tolerant plants may provide partial solutions to drought and salinization effects on agriculture. There may be vastly better crops for arid zones e.g. indigenous sandalwood (oil), aloe (pharmaceuticals) and mulga and other plants (for biochar production) (see “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds”). The rate of species extinction is 100-1,000 times higher than normal and excessive use of water and drastic depletion of river flows is contributing to Australia’s world leading loss of biodiversity and ecosystems.

14. Is the worsening water crisis threatening world peace? Yes. Over 260 river basins are shared by 2 or more countries, mostly without adequate legal or institutional arrangements (with huge implications for current and future conflicts). Thus high population megadelta Egypt is threatened by rising sea levels (that will destroy the fertile Nile delta) and by greater Sudanese and Ethiopian use of Nile water upstream. Africa-Asian Very High Water Stress zone countries are variously violently occupied, bombed or threatened by the US Alliance in a swathe stretching from Occupied Somalia and Occupied Palestine in the West to Occupied Afghanistan and US robot-bombed Pakistan in the East. In Occupied Palestine, Israel mostly steals 80% of the water from the West Bank Mountain Aquifer for itself, leaving 20% for its Occupied Palestinian Subjects, who are thus deprived not only of basic human rights but also of their own water supplies. According to Amnesty International (2009): “While Palestinian daily water consumption barely reaches 70 litres a day per person, Israeli daily consumption is more than 300 litres per day, four times as much. In some rural communities Palestinians survive on barely 20 litres per day, the minimum amount recommended for domestic use in emergency situations.” The Iraq War and the horrible threat of an extension to Iran may be due to potential Israeli desires for water from the Euphrates as well as from US desires for oil and hegemony.

15. Is the water crisis compounded by population increase? Yes. The world’s population is currently 6.7 billion and is projected by the UN Population Division to plateau at about 9.5 billion by 2050. However nearly half the world’s population variously suffers from water deficits for drinking, sanitation and/or agriculture already. Each year about 16 million people die avoidably from deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease (2003 data; see my book “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”). The latest data from the UN Population Division indicate 22 million avoidable deaths annually, with global warming, drought, shrinking aquifers, decreased agricultural productivity, water-borne disease, malnutrition, illiteracy, lack of primary health care, lack of sanitation and lack of potable water all contributing to this avoidable carnage.

16. Can you comment on the term climate genocide in relation to water deficits and population growth? Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that fewer than 1 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming – noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. Water deficits will compound this worsening climate genocide. Already 16 million people (about 9.5 million of them under-5 year old infants) die avoidably every year due to deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease – and man-made global warming is already clearly worsening this global avoidable mortality holocaust. However 10 billion avoidable deaths due to global warming this century yields an average annual avoidable death rate of 100 million per year. Collective, national responsibility for this already commenced Climate Holocaust is in direct proportion to per capita national pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Indeed, fundamental to any international agreement on national rights to pollute our common atmosphere and oceans should be the belief that “all men are created equal”. However reality is otherwise: “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution is included).

17. How should Australia and the World respond to the worsening climate crisis? Top scientists say that crucial policies should be (1) no ETS (the Carbon Trading-based Emission Trading Scheme approach is empirically ineffective, dangerously counterproductive and is inherently fraudulent – in addition to dangerous market manipulation leading to carbon credit “bubbles”, nobody has the right to sell “licences” to pollute the one common atmosphere of the Planet); (2) 100% renewable energy ASAP (Beyond Zero Emissions has recently published its Zero Carbon Australia 2020, ZCA 2020, Report that costs 100% renewable energy for Australia based on wind and concentrated solar thermal with molten salts energy storage at A$370 billion) coupled with cessation of GHG pollution, deforestation, population increase and mass species extinction; and (3) a carbon price (e.g. a revenue neutral Carbon Tax).

18. Can biofuels contribute to solving the water and climate change crisis? Biofuel generation via algal photosynthesis can be carbon neutral. However biofuels from converting food to fuel is obscene in a hungry world (biofuel genocide already threatens billions through food price rises that were only averted in 2008 due to the Global Financial Crisis) and in actuality also creates big water losses and a carbon debt (e.g. methane from anaerobic bacterial action in deforested tropical wetlands, CO₂ from oxidation of soil carbon and agricultural waste).

19. How can the atmospheric CO₂ concentration be reduced to 300 ppm and other GHGs be contained ? Biochar expert Professor Johannes Lehmann of Cornell University has calculated that it is realistically possible to fix 9.5bn tonnes of carbon per year using biochar (charcoal generated by anaerobic pyrolysis of cellulose waste at 400-700 degrees C) , noting that global annual production of carbon from fossil fuels is 8.5bn tonnes. However GHG methane from melting tundra, industrial natural gas leakage and from methanogenic livestock is a huge problem (methane is 72 times worse than CO₂ as a GHG on a 20 year time scale). World Bank analysts recently estimated that GHG pollution is 50% bigger than hitherto thought and that livestock contribute over 51% of the bigger figure.. Natural gas is dirty energy.

20. What can individuals do? Silence kills and silence is complicity. Educated people have an obligation to inform others about the worsening climate emergency. You can vote appropriately, be environmentally correct and also join a local Climate Action Group (e.g. the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group) so that you can say that you have done something collectively to avert climate catastrophe.

References.

“Peak water”, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_water .

Gideon Polya, “Water crisis, Palestinian Genoicde and Climate Genocide”, Countercurrents: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya270410.htm .

World Water Council, “Water crisis”, 2009: http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/index.php?id=25 .

Amnesty International, “ Israel rations Palestinians to a trickle of water”, 27 October 2009: http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/report/israel-rations-palestinians-trickle-water-20091027 .

Climate Genocide: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .

Biofuel Genocide: https://sites.google.com/site/biofuelgenocide/ .

Climate crisis articles: https://sites.google.com/site/climatecrisisarticles/ .

300.org: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/ .

Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/ .

Professor John Holdren (Professor of Environmental Policy and Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University; Director, Woods Hole Research Center; former president, American Association for the Advancement of Science, AAAS; President Barack Obama’s chief science adviser), “The Science of Climate Disruption” (2008) – a summary of the basis of man-made global warming and the climatic disruption that has already occurred: http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .

Water resources, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources .

World Water Council: http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/ .

Water Crisis, World Water Council: http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/index.php?id=25 .

Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortaliity since 1950”: http://globalavoidablemortality.blogspot.com/2008/08/body-count-global-avoidable-mortality.html .

Gideon Polya, “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History”: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/2008/09/jane-austen-and-black-hole-of-british.html .

Jared Diamond, “Collapse”.

Gideon Polya, “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds”..

Water availability information by country, Green Facts: http://www.greenfacts.org/en/water-resources/figtableboxes/3.htm .

Rachel Carson, “Silent Spring”.

Paul Ehrlich, “The Population Bomb”.